Quantum error mitigation relies on accurate noise characterization, but mismatches between the actual and characterized noise can be amplified and drive a sharp threshold between successful and failed mitigation. In random circuits, this threshold map
Quantum error mitigation relies on accurate noise characterization, but mismatches between the actual and characterized noise can be amplified and drive a sharp threshold between successful and failed mitigation. In random circuits, this threshold maps onto a random-field Ising transition, but previous exact numerics were limited to small one-dimensional and all-to-all systems, leaving explicit two-dimensional architectures unresolved. We develop a fixed-bond-dimension matrix-product-state method for the replicated transfer dynamics that extends threshold calculations beyond exact propagation while retaining the finite-size signatures of the transition. At system sizes beyond previous exact studies, we recover the predicted absence of a threshold for quenched disorder in 1D, obtain a sharper annealed all-to-all critical point, and resolve architecture-dependent finite-depth thresholds in 2D square and heavy-hex circuits. These results establish replicated tensor-network dynamics as a practical tool for probing error-mitigation thresholds in large and higher-dimensional noisy circuits.